Weekend Gaps and Shifting Hedges
A missile hit Riyadh's main airport on a Saturday. By Monday's open, brokers carrying
weekend exposure faced a repriced market with little chance to hedge in between. Our
network data shows the pressure points were already shifting before it happened.
Key findings
Across the Tapaas network, revenue per unit on US index flow fell by more than a third
from August to September 2026.
Over the same period, precious metals and FX both earned more per unit of flow.
Hedge mix changes were concentrated: a handful of brokers drove most of the shift.
One cut the share of FX flow it hedges by around 40%.
Weekend gaps land on the broker's own book, and where client accounts go negative,
negative balance protection caps what the broker can recover.
What happened over the weekend
In April we asked whether brokers were ready if Middle East conflict hit markets again. It
has not gone away, and it is now escalating.
On Saturday 10 October, a Houthi missile hit Riyadh's main airport, killing at least 12
people. A second attack followed on Sunday, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have
surged, and crude is up sharply this year.
Why the old market playbook is not holding
Oil: Brent climbed again after the weekend.
Gold: spiked in early Monday trade, then gave it back and closed lower, as rising yields
and a firmer dollar outweighed safe-haven demand.
Rates: US yields at multi-decade highs, with markets leaning towards a Fed hike before
year-end.
Hedges built on old correlations, such as gold rallying when risk sells off, may not behave
as expected.
Our own September data shows the old relationships already shifting. Revenue per unit
on US index flow fell by more than a third across the Tapaas network, while precious
metals and FX both earned more per unit of flow.
How do weekend gaps affect a CFD broker's B-book?
The Riyadh strike landed on a Saturday, and three pressures can hit a book at once.
1. Weekend gaps. Positions carried from Friday reopen at new prices, and stops fill at the
gapped level. Where client accounts go negative, negative balance protection caps
what the broker can collect, while any hedged side of those positions still has to be
settled in full with the liquidity provider.
2. One-way positioning. News like this pushes clients into the same trades, which can
build concentrated B-book exposure within hours.
3. Correlation breaks. Exposure that looked balanced across oil, gold and indices can
stop netting off when those markets stop moving the way they used to.
Weekend markets add a second layer. More brokers now quote gold, oil and indices
through the weekend, often priced off client flow or proxy markets. Weekend liquidity is
thin, so unless a broker routes that flow to one of the few providers offering it, each trade
sits on the book until the underlying market reopens.
Questions for the desk this week:
Worth answering before the next weekend:
What did Monday's reopen cost us, by instrument?
Which accounts traded the weekend news?
How does our hedge mix compare with the rest of the market?
Can we change spreads, limits and routing within minutes?
Ready now, not at the peak- preparation cannot wait for the peak. The desks coping best watch exposure, client behaviour and execution in one live view.
Tapaas gives dealing desks that view, plus automated hedging rules and a read on how the
network is moving. If a Tapaas client, start with one question to TAPI: "How does my hedge
mix compare with the network?" If not, book a demo at tapaas.com/book-a-demo
